Tackling the climate overshoot challenges: RESCUE at COP30

In 2024, global observed temperature increase went above 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels for the first time. Although this does not mean that the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement has been exceeded, the risk of at least temporarily exceeding, or overshooting, this long-term goal increases with each year of continued emissions. It is therefore more important than ever to understand the challenges and risks such an overshoot poses, to understand the implications of bringing temperatures back down through carbon dioxide removal (CDR), and for science and policy to align on realistic pathways forward. Overshoot and CDR are critical issues to understand at the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, COP30, which takes place from 10 to 21 November 2025 in Belém, Brazil.

RESCUE teamed with PROVIDE and leading climate researchers from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) to bring to COP30 the hybrid session “Climate overshoot challenges: peatland warming, risky assumptions, and temporary CDR solutions” on 11 November 2025 at 14:00-15:15 in the ICCI Cryosphere Pavilion.

In this session, researchers unpacked the challenges societies face in an overshoot world, how peatland warming accelerates CDR needs, and how temporary CDR can only offset warming caused by short-lived GHGs but cannot offset CO2 emissions. Bringing state-of-the-art findings, this session explored approaches for integrating new insights into climate policy. The session was moderated by Uta Klönne (Climate Analytics), with speakers including Biqing Zhu (IIASA / LSCE), Thomas Gasser (IIASA) and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (IIASA). A recording of the event is available on demand here.